Yili shares (600887) quarterly report review report： the long-term performance of the starter under a high base is worry-free
Yili shares (600887) quarterly report review report: the long-term performance of the starter under a high base is worry-free
High growth in Q1 with a high base, long-term bullish adjustment to the “strongly recommended” level: the company achieved operating income of 231 in Q1 2019.
30 ppm / + 17.
10%, due to the misalignment of the Spring Festival, the base in 2018Q1 is high, and the revenue in 2019Q1 is slightly higher than expected, achieving a good start; net profit attributable to mothers22.
7.6 billion / + 8.
36%, net profit after deduction 21.
$ 8.2 billion / + 9.
We are optimistic about the company’s brand power, its share continues to increase, and its international business is gradually expanding. Its profit forecast is 65% in 2018/2019.
0 million yuan adjusted to 2019/2020 net profit 69.
5 ppm, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 23X / 22X, raised to the “strongly recommended” level.
The product structure continued to improve, and the gross profit margin rebounded month-on-month: The gross profit margin in 2019Q1 was 39.
9% / + 1.
1pc, adjusted inventory in March, sales expense ratio 24.
1% / + 1.
The promotion efforts in the first quarter have generally declined. Terminal purchases from January to February decreased, and March purchase incentives increased from the previous month, which was generally smaller than the same period in 2018.
The product structure continued to improve. The growth rate of high-end products Anmuxi maintained above 30%, and the growth rate of Jindian increased by more than 15%, and it still maintained a high growth rate. At the same time, new products such as Miaozhi cheese and Jindianjuan milk were continuously introduced; infant milk powderThe competitive environment improved and gross profit 北京夜网 gradually returned to normal.
The channel is intensively cultivated, the market penetration ability continues to increase, and the large amount of repurchases shows confidence: the company’s market share in 2018 is about 40%, and the village-level online stores are directly controlled by nearly 60.
80,000 homes + 14.
At 7%, the growth rate of all sales levels (except township and village levels) has increased by more than two digits; new products such as soymilk will be gradually exerted in the transformation channels, and the company’s market share will be promoted to about 45% in 2019.
The company recently announced that the repurchase price is less than 35 yuan, which demonstrates confidence in the company’s value. The repurchased shares are used to implement distribution incentives. We believe that the distribution incentives in the second quarter promote the 天津夜网 implementation.
Strategically distribute upstream milk sources and gradually cut into the big health field: The company ‘s wholly-owned subsidiary, Hong Kong Golden Port Commercial Holdings Co., Ltd., acquired the dairy industry in western New Zealand to strengthen its upstream voice. After the acquisition, it will increase its operating income by approximately RMB 32 billion.
In addition to continuing to cultivate in the areas of room temperature yogurt, high-end white milk, and dairy products, the company also entered the Indonesian market with “Happy Day” ice cream, acquired Thailand ‘s The CHOMTHANA COMPANY LIMITED, continued to enter the large health industry such as plant protein drinks and functional drinks, and accelerated the health food business.Strategic layout.
Compared with Nestlé and Danone’s development path, in the process of integrating global resources and serving the global market, the prototype of global food giants has basically appeared.
Risk warning: raw material prices fluctuate, and channel expansion is less than expected